Prediction: Toluca vs Necaxa – Liga MX – 03/08/2026
Preview
Toluca will host Necaxa at Nemesio Diez Stadium on Sunday, August 3, 2026, at 1:00 AM BST in Liga MX. Toluca is currently 10th in the table with 3 points from 2 matches, while Necaxa ranks 5th with 6 points from 2 games. Toluca has been in decent form, with 2 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches. They have shown a strong attacking prowess, with a notable 6-5 win over Tigres UANL in the CONCACAF Champions Cup. However, they have also suffered a 2-0 defeat in Liga MX. Necaxa, on the other hand, has been impressive, with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches. They have shown resilience, coming back from a 4-1 deficit to draw 4-4 with Cruz Azul in Liga MX. However, they have also suffered a 1-2 defeat in Liga MX. Our experts believe that Necaxa's strong form and recent results give them a slight advantage in this match.
Toluca
Fulltime Result
Necaxa
home
63.76%
draw
20.73%
away
15.5%
Toluca will host Necaxa on August 3, 2026, in Liga MX. Our experts believe that Toluca will emerge victorious, given their impressive form in recent matches. In their last five games, Toluca has shown a remarkable ability to win, with victories over Guadalajara and Pachuca, and a narrow loss to Pumas UNAM. They have also had a significant win in the CONCACAF Champions Cup against Tigres UANL. On the other hand, Necaxa has struggled, with defeats to Cruz Azul and a narrow loss to Monterrey. Our experts estimate that Toluca has a slight advantage, with a 63.71% chance of winning, while Necaxa's chances stand at 15.53%, and the probability of a draw is estimated at 20.79%.
Toluca's recent form has been impressive, with a win over Guadalajara and a loss to Pumas UNAM in Liga MX, followed by a significant win in the CONCACAF Champions Cup against Tigres UANL. In contrast, Necaxa has struggled, with defeats to Cruz Azul and a narrow loss to Monterrey in Liga MX.
Our experts believe that Toluca will win this match, given their recent form and experience in Liga MX. Toluca has a strong team and a good coach, which will give them an edge over Necaxa. Necaxa, on the other hand, has been struggling and will need to improve their performance to stand a chance against Toluca.
In terms of key players, there is no information available on any players being injured or missing the game. Both teams can count on all their players. There are also no rumors about the match that could affect the outcome.
Toluca
Both Teams To Score
Necaxa
yes
51.41%
no
48.59%
Our experts believe that both teams have a good chance of scoring in the match between Toluca and Necaxa. In the last five games, Toluca scored a total of 14 goals, while Necaxa found the net 4 times. Based on recent performance and offensive capability shown by both teams, this is a moderado risk bet.
Toluca
Over/Under
Necaxa
Over 1.5
yes
78.74%
no
21.26%
Over 2.5
yes
57%
no
43%
Over 3.5
yes
34.57%
no
65.43%
Over 4.5
yes
22.52%
no
77.48%
Our statistical model recommends betting on Over/Under 2.5 Probability goals in the game between Toluca and Necaxa. In the last five games, Toluca scored a total of 23 goals, while Necaxa scored 13 goals. Considering recent performance and offensive capability shown by both teams, this is a moderado risk bet.
Toluca
Toluca x Necaxa Last matches
Necaxa
Toluca
40%
Draw
20%
Necaxa
40%
Average statistics (latest matches)
Average goals 4.8
Both teams score 80
Goals scored(time 1) 2.4
Goals scored(time 2) 2.4
Over 2,5 100
Under 2.5 0
Toluca
Total results
Necaxa
32 matches
13
wins
/
11
draws
/
8
wins
13
wins
(41%)
11
draws
(34%)
8
wins
(25%)
Recent form
Toluca
Wins
3/6 (50%)
Draws
0/6 (0%)
Losses
3/6 (50%)
Average statistics (latest matches)
Total goals 3.83
Both score 33.33%
Goals scored 2.17
Goals conceded 1.67
Over 2,5 50
Less 2,5 50
CONCACAF Champions Cup - 07/05/2026
CONCACAF Champions Cup - 31/05/2026
Liga MX - 19/07/2026
Liga MX - 22/07/2026
Necaxa
Wins
2/6 (33.33%)
Draws
3/6 (50%)
Losses
1/6 (16.67%)
Average statistics (latest matches)
Total goals 2.17
Both score 66.67%
Goals scored 1
Goals conceded 1.17
Over 2,5 50
Less 2,5 50
Latest news and statistics from Toluca
Toluca is gearing up for the third round of the 2026/2027 Liga MX against Necaxa, with a current ranking of 10th place and three points accumulated from two games. The team's recent form is a mixed bag, with a 1-2 loss to Pumas UNAM in their last Liga MX encounter, followed by a convincing 2-0 victory over Guadalajara. Additionally, Toluca suffered a 1-0 defeat to Cancún in a friendly match, while they secured a thrilling 6-5 win over Tigres UANL in the CONCACAF Champions Cup. Their Liga MX campaign also saw a 2-0 loss to Pachuca. In terms of recent performances, Toluca has shown glimpses of improvement, but consistency remains a concern. Their defensive solidity was on display in the 2-0 win over Guadalajara, but they struggled to find the back of the net against Pumas UNAM. The team's attacking prowess was also on display in the CONCACAF Champions Cup win over Tigres UANL, but they were unable to replicate this form in their subsequent matches. As Toluca prepares to face Necaxa, they will be looking to build on their positive moments and address their defensive vulnerabilities. With a renewed focus on consistency and improving their attacking output, the team is likely to approach this match with a sense of determination and a desire to secure a positive result.Latest news and statistics from Necaxa
Necaxa heads into the third round of the 2026/2027 Liga MX with a respectable 6 points from 2 games, placing them 5th in the standings. Their recent form has been a mixed bag, with a 2-1 victory over Monterrey in their last league outing, followed by a 2-1 win against Atlante. However, they were held to a goalless draw by León in a friendly match, and suffered a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Cruz Azul. Necaxa's performance against Guadalajara ended in a 0-0 draw. The team's preparation for the upcoming match against Toluca will likely focus on building on their recent wins and addressing the areas where they struggled against stronger opponents. Necaxa's coach will need to find a balance between maintaining their current momentum and improving their defensive solidity, as they face a tough challenge against Toluca. The team's recent results suggest that they have the potential to cause an upset, but they will need to be at their best to secure a positive outcome.
Where to watch Toluca X Necaxa ?
Toluca
latest line-ups
Necaxa
Lineup
1.
Hugo González
2.
Diego Barbosa
4.
Bruno Méndez
13.
Luan
17.
Brian García
7.
Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán
24.
Fernando Arce
11.
Helinho
10.
Jesús Angulo
9.
Alexis Vega
29.
Jorge Díaz
Lineup
Luis Jiménez
12.
Raúl Alejandro Martínez Ruiz
33.
Francisco Méndez
20.
Agustín Oliveros
3.
Ricardo Monreal
30.
Lorenzo Faravelli
8.
Danny Leyva
6.
Carlos Vargas
88.
Juan Torres
11.
Javier Ruiz
10.
Julián Carranza
9.
Bench
3.
Antonio Briseño
5.
Franco Romero
6.
Federico Pereira
8.
Nicolás Castro
19.
Santiago Simón
20.
Jesús Gallardo
22.
Luis García
25.
Everardo del Villar
35.
Érick Gabriel Gutiérrez Galaviz
191.
Carlos Carrillo
Bench
Christopher Andrade
1.
Emilio Martínez
2.
Kaiky Marques Naves
5.
Mauro Zaleta
14.
Pedro Pedraza Reyna
16.
Rogelio Cortéz
17.
Matías Espíndola
21.
Misael Pedroza
27.
Juan Valencia
90.
Miguel Emilio Rodríguez Macías
99.
Standings Toluca x Necaxa
Apertura
.
No
team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
#: position
team: team
P: played
W: wins
D: draws
L: losses
GF: goals for
GA: goals against
GD: goal difference
Pts: points
#Final Series
#Final Series Play-offs
Toluca vs Necaxa FAQ
Toluca vs Necaxa when?
The match between Toluca and Necaxa will take place on 03/08/2026. Don't miss this great game and the chance to bet on it!
Toluca vs Necaxa what time?
The game between Toluca and Necaxa will start at 02:05 Brasília time on 03/08/2026.
Toluca vs Necaxa who won?
We don't know who will win the duel between Toluca and Necaxa, and that's why we love football. However, our experts believe that betting on the victory of team Toluca can be a moderate risk choice.