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Guide To Using PRO Data To Pick Bets
Published: 2020-07-06 By: The Guru
As you have no doubt seen by now we have made some major changes to the site over the past couple of weeks.
One of the biggest is an overhaul of how our PRO offering works.
Whereas before we used to provide ‘tips’ on a daily basis, we have always known this is not the best long term solution when it comes to helping our followers.
We have always preferred to follow the give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime way of thinking.
So instead of providing you with the tips on a daily basis that would make you always reliant on us, we switched to providing you the data and teaching you how to find and make better bets will help you more over the long-term.
We have been working with a lot of tipsters over the past couple of months to help build out a data set that they could use to build their bets and to allow quick analysis of inplay games and this has now formed the basis of our PRO Data.
As you can see in the Example Data, we provide 15 data points for all of the day's games, allowing you to build bets based around your preferences! Professional gamblers and tipsters tend to be experts in picking certain types of bets! For us it is the BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals market, some focus on BTTS games, 2.5 Goals Games, Home Wins, Away Wins, Draw or Teams to score 2+ goals… You can build all these types of bets using the data.
Here are the 15 data points you get access to:
- Home: % chance of the home team winning
- Draw: % chance of the game ending in a draw
- Away: % chance of the away team winning
- HxG: Expected number of goals scored by the home team
- AxG: Expected number of goals scored by the away team
- xG: Expected total number of goals in the game
- FHxG: Expected number of goals in the first half
- BTTS: % Chance of both teams scoring in the game
- Over 0.5: % of previous games that have had over 0.5 match goals
- Over 1.5: % of previous games that have had over 1.5 match goals
- Over 2.5: % of previous games that have had over 2.5 match goals
- Over 3.5: % of previous games that have had over 3.5 match goals
- HT Home: % chance of the home team winning the first half
- HT Draw: % chance of the match being a draw at half time
- HT Away: % chance of the away team winning the first half
You are able to order by these columns making it easy for you to find games in seconds that match your preferred bet type.
How we use the data to pick BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals selections
Here is a step-by-step guide to how we pick out our selections using the data:
- Order the data by Over 2.5 Goals descending. So the highest chance over 2.5 goals games are at the top.
- Any of the games that are highlighted in green in the over 2.5 goals are potential games
- To narrow these games down we need to find the games where the balance of these three goals is going to be spread across both the teams. We doe this using the HxG & AxG values.
- HxG & AxG are the expected number of goals that the Home (HxG) and Away (AxG) teams are expected to score in the game.
- As you scroll through the list, take a note of any games where both the HxG & AxG value is more than or equal to 1.40. This indicates that both these teams have a strong chance of scoring at least one goal in the game.
- Now that you have a list of potential games - which on most days will be between 4 and 10 games! You need to ensure they have value, we do this by logging into our bookmaker and getting the odds for the Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals market.
- If the odds for the market in our match is less than 1.80, we remove that game from our list. If it is more than or equal to 1.80 then is it a valid selection for the day.
- You will often be left with between 3-6 good options on a daily basis.
This is just an example of how we use the data to pick our daily selections in a single market. We also do a lot with the team goals markets and away wins market but we will create a separate guide for those.
The data is very powerful when used to pick out specific bets. Our number one piece of advise is to try and become and expert at picking bets in a certain market, rather than trying to consume all the data and make lots of different bets.
We are always making improvements to the data and hope that once the site grows and revenue increases we will be able to afford an expanded dataset that will allow us to get Corners & Cards data as well.
If you have any suggestions for improvements, feel free to reach out to us. Good luck with picking your bets!
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