Published: 2020-12-03 By: The Guru
Football is one of the most exciting games to bet on. In America, there is both college football and the National Football League to place a bet on. Football provides some of the most hard-hitting action, exciting plays and gifted athletes in the world. In this article, we will give you a few betting strategies so that you can win your football bets.
Don’t Always Trust Home Field Advantage
It makes sense that home-field advantage would usually give a team a betting advantage and they will be favored in a game but that should not always be the case. Sure, there is no travel, there are fans that are there making noise for your teams and home locker rooms are often much more comfortable. But statistically speaking, a much different story is told about home field advantage. While a team is more likely to win outright, covering the game isn’t always guaranteed. Home teams have gone 4630-4865 (48.8%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005. That’s not a terrible number but it isn’t as high as one would think it would be given how much the odds improve for a team when they get to play on their turf. Although, some teams have been ultra successful at home.
Bad Weather Favors the Under
Playing football at the college and professional level is hard as is, so then adding the elements of bad weather does not make it any easier. Many times, football games will feature terrible rain, heavy winds and a wet surface to play on. When it is wet, the ball becomes much tougher to catch and tougher to release out of the hand. When the ground is wet, running backs and wide receivers have a hard time planting and getting their feet set. And when the wind is going, it makes it impossible to hit a field goal. When the wind is over 10 MPH, the under has gone 991-829 (54.5%), winning an astounding +112.44 units with a 6.1% ROI.
Hitting Player Props
Player props are a great thing to be in an NFL or college football game. The reason it is good to bet on player props is because there is plenty of information and stats that will help you make a decision and make an informed bet. For example, if there is a player prop that Josh Allen will throw Over/Under 280 yards, this is a very simple statistic to research. You can see how many yards he has thrown for in every single game that season. You can look at the matchup he has in that game and whether or not he will be able to successfully pull off a prop like that. There are also anytime touchdown scorer props that can oftentimes make you some money. If you saw that Austin Hooper has scored a touchdown in 3 of 6 games but is sitting at +210 to score a touchdown, it’s a great bet to throw money on the chance for him to score. Playing Live Veto gives you tons of great props that will let you bet on some of these.
Bet with Value
Betting with value is incredibly important and is an easyway to lose money very quickly. A lot of times, bettors will see a money line bet on a team that should win a game and they are quick to place a bet that is near -190. This means you must bet $190 to win $100. The games that have good value are ones where an underdog playing at home is valued over +250 or a team coming off a bye that may be sluggish is a big favorite and you bet the other way. It is important that you look for the best value on bets so that you aren’t losing big money on favorites that can be upset at any time.
Spread the Bets Around
Many times, bettors will get too comfortable betting on just one kind of bet. It is best to spread bets around to different kinds of bets. This means to put money on the spread, throw some money on an Over/Under and maybe even take a prop or two. There lies great values in different kinds of bets and so it is a smart idea to look at the best value for every single category of a bet you can make. If you find a few bets that you like in particular, parlay the bets and you can up your value.
Lay your bet early
If there is a bet that you really like, it is a good idea to get that bet in early during the week. Lines change and injuries happen and that can make point spreads shift. You want to bet ahead of the shift. If there is a game where you think 51 is a low over/under, there is a good chance that many people may agree with you. If you wait until late in the week, there is a chance that the Over/Under has now moved to 55 points. You want to make sure you are in the trend of the line and moving in the right direction with it.
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