Published: 2020-05-16 By: The Guru
The Bundesliga returned on Saturday afternoon much to the joy of football supporters around the world. Especially our readers who followed our betting guide and locked in a profit for the day! (As we write this we are in profit with 1 game left to play!).
The final three games of the gameweek are spread across Sunday (2 games) and Monday (1 game).
We have analysed the stats for all three to pick out our best bets for each game as we look to lock in more more profit for our followers!
First up we have Cologne vs Mainz a game that the algorithm is flagging as a comfortable home win.
We are finding it tough to go against that prediction for the outcome of this game, even in the current situation but certainly don't think it is going to be a walkover - it could turn out to be a much closer game.
An xMG (Expected Match Goals) value of 3.6 means we could be due a couple of goals here and we think both teams have the power to find the net so both team to score stands out as an option.
Cologne have a good record for goals at home and we can see them netting in both halves to offer a value bet.
Safe Pick: Both Teams to Score - Odds: 1.57
Riskier Pick: Cologne To Score in Both Halves - Odds: 2.50
Top of the league Bayern Munich return to action with a trip to Berlin and will know the pressure is on them to get a result after Dortmund's 4-0 victory over Schalke on Saturday.
I think you will have to go a long way to find anyone that is betting on anything over than a Bayern win in this one and there is little value in tipping that.
In order to find some value we think the team goals market could be a safe play and fancy Bayern to beat the 2.5 mark at value odds.
For our longer odds selection we are actually going to venture into the Correct Score market - not something that we do often but the odds and data suggest this could be a great pick.
Safe Pick: Bayern Over 2.5 Team Goals - Odds: 1.73
Riskier Pick: Correct Score: 1-3 - Odds: 11.00
Closing out gameweek 26 on Monday night we have an interesting encounter between Werder Bremen & Bayer Leverkusen.
Form would dictate that this should be a comfortable away win but the head to head record shows that even when Leverkusen are favourites it is rarely a straight forward encounter.
When looking at the Expected Goals figures for the game it shows Leverkusen have a strong advantage in firepower versus their rivals in this one and that could provide the betting angle rather than focusing on an outcome.
They have managed to score in both halves in over 50% of their recent away games and Bremen games have a habit of having first half goals so we fancy that as a solid selection.
We can't see anything in the long odds that appeals so our riskier pick in this one is still fairly safe as we fancy and away win with both teams scoring.
Safe Pick: Bayer Leverkusen To Score In Both Halves - Odds: 2.25
Riskier Pick: Leverkusen Win & BTTS - Odds: 3.00
We hope you find this preview helpful in selecting your bets for the final Bundesliga games.
Don't agree with our selections? Feel free to hit us up with yours over on Twitter.
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